About the Stake Weighted Meta Model

Data Science
3

Another curiosity, how do top staked models (models != accounts) perform ?

cumulative
cumulative1200×800 80.1 KB

Download the data, then plot

#!/usr/bin/env python3

import sys
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns

if len(sys.argv) < 2:
    print("Usage:")
    print(f" {sys.argv[0]} round-xxx-yyy.csv")
    sys.exit(1)

CORR_COL='v2Corr20'

df = pd.read_csv(sys.argv[1])

# keep only the needed columns
df = df[ ["corrWMetaModel","mmc","modelName","payoutSettled","selectedStakeValue","tc","v2Corr20","roundNumber"] ]

# keep only staked models
df = df[ df["selectedStakeValue"] > 1.0 ]

# make sure of the sorting
df = df.sort_values(by="roundNumber", ascending=True)

plt.rcParams["figure.figsize"] = [12,8] # default is [6.4, 4.8]

def plot(s):
    ax = ((s.fillna(0.) + 1.0).cumprod() - 1.0).plot(kind='line', legend=True, linewidth=3)
    return ax

tmp_series = df.groupby(['roundNumber']).apply(lambda x: x[CORR_COL].mean())
tmp_series.name='All staked models Mean v2Corr20'
plot(tmp_series)

tmp_series = df.groupby(['roundNumber']).apply(lambda x: (x[CORR_COL]*x["selectedStakeValue"]).sum()/x["selectedStakeValue"].sum() )
tmp_series.name='Stake Weighted v2Corr20'
plot(tmp_series)

tmp_series = df.groupby(['roundNumber']).apply(lambda x: x.nlargest(3, "selectedStakeValue")[CORR_COL].mean())
tmp_series.name='Highest 3 Staked Model Mean v2Corr20'
plot(tmp_series)

tmp_series = df.groupby(['roundNumber']).apply(lambda x: x.nlargest(10, "selectedStakeValue")[CORR_COL].mean())
tmp_series.name='Highest 10 Staked Model Mean v2Corr20'
plot(tmp_series)

tmp_series = df.groupby(['roundNumber']).apply(lambda x: x.nlargest(30, "selectedStakeValue")[CORR_COL].mean())
tmp_series.name='Highest 30 Staked Model Mean v2Corr20'
ax = plot(tmp_series)

ax.get_figure().savefig(f"cumulative.png")
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