Well, here we go again. NMR is down (again) and everybody cries again. I am in this competition already for 6 years and this just keeps following the pattern. Funny that nobody complains whenever NMR reaches the ATH (again), and nobody complains whenever ppl here literally make millions of dollars in profit (again!) by combining their model performance with selling NMR at good prices with the right timing. Some ppl just don’t understand how it works, the cycles, they just buy at the ATH, and then they cry.
I understand that frustration (kind of), modelling the market is very hard and then you have to care about exposure to “bad crypto eww”. But you guys have to realize something - without NMR released as a token, this competition would never pay so much to data scientists. Ever. Not possible. There are too many participants and the fund is very small. Do you really want to have $30k in the prize pool per round? To divide between all models? This would be a realistic option related to the fund’s AUM. Honestly, I don’t.
Also, without using “crypto” for payouts it would never be possible to run global staking competition for the whole world. How would you do it with USD? With wire transfers? Paypal? The compliance burden and all the KYC nonsense would just bury the project at the very beginning. I hope that the crypto haters in this thread could see this too. Therefore I sincerely hope the NMR token with all the “crypto” aspects will stay for as long as possible!
Sure, the volatility of NMR is a problem. You have to time the buys (or wait for accumulation ranges) and sell profits using limit orders at their peaks. For me at least is this still a cost & risk I am willing to swallow. An alternate solution (payouts in USD) means negligible payouts. If this ever happens, I am gone.
For the crypto haters of this thread - I kinda understand some of your arguments (I agree that unfortunately there is a lot of scam and poor projects in the industry). Honestly, I only find BTC, XMR, ETH and NMR interesting. As much as I respect Mr. Taleb (his Black Swan book is just great), I believe he is plain wrong here (and I won’t comment further on his retarded “clustering analysis” based on a faulty generalization). Good and honest crypto projects can have value demonstrated by this very project here (I mean numer.ai). And I myself believe that honest “crypto” projects with prevail, Numeraire included. I accumulate / trade NMR and so it does certain private fund I am cooperating with because we believe the current NMR price is already well suited for accumulation with a long-term horizon in mind.
And if you really still believe in Mr. Taleb’s argument that the real value of any “crypto” is 0 (zero), I have a last question for you - why don’t you just short the crypto to have some skin in this argument? That would also solve your issue with exposure to crypto while buying NMR for staking (they are strongly correlated). Then you are (at least partially) hedged and you don’t need to cry in the forum anymore worry about your exposure to crypto that much and watch your model grow your precious capital.
(Yeah, I wanted to sound a bit unkind in the last paragraph (could not help it, sorry guys), but really shorting BTC / ETH is serious advice on how to at least partially mitigate the exposure to crypto if you don’t want to worry about timing NMR buys/sells.)