Borrowing NMR to avoid NMR risk


Now we have 5 models in the top 10 without stake!
This is really bad for the future of Numerai.
I guess the creators trust their model, but they don’t trust NMR. ( Am I wrong with this assumption? Feedback is welcome)

The good news is that we can do something about it.
We can support this proposal at AAVE to add NMR:

If this proposal is accepted, we can borrow NMR and cancel the currency risk.

We need a lot more votes on this one to make it come true!
Come on guys! This is our common interest!



A lot of the time we see these high-ranking models and they are actually created by people who are staking (sometimes significantly) on OTHER models and the high-ranking one is a test or experimental or high-risk model. High-risk models will often rocket to the top and be there for a while. But then something changes and they plummet. (That’s how it goes with high-risk models pretty much by definition.) And this is the case with the current 3rd & 4th models (quantaquetzalcoatlus & sapphirescipionyx) which are from the same user – they are staking, just not on those models.


Summed it up well. At least in the case for models 3 and 4. To avoid having to move around stakes all the time (which will hopefully get easier with stake management), I decided on staking on only one model which is an ensemble of other well performing models of mine, including Quanta. So in some sense those are still being represented in the meta-model.
It may be possible to crawl through the api to check whether other unstaked models at the top of the leaderboard are from a user that has a stake elsewhere.

I do think that AAVE adding NMR is something to strive for. The primary reason why I haven’t staked more is due to the potential currency risk. Additionally, when talking to non-crypto people about staking on my predictions, the biggest hurdle for them is accepting the currency risk. Perhaps one day this could get integrated into the outside staking projects being worked on so that people could painlessly stake on another’s predictions with stablecoins via AAVE.

Yup, that makes sense!
Borrowing NMR would be great anyway.

Is there such a thing, as NMR put options?

That would be a tailor-made way to nullify the risk. E.g., when you buy 100 NMR for 50 USD per NMR, also buy a put option for 100 NMR with strike price 50 USD per NMR.

The time limit would introduce some complication.

Of course I’m just dreaming; NMR put options will probably never be a thing.

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I play for fun and just use the leaderboard for my own vanity. I think you should be more concerned with how many users are losing in terms of the annual returns column (<50!!!) - IMHO this is more a concern in terms of success than those of us who just play for amusement.

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Do you think, this is too good to be true?

Everyone winning is not usually sustainable is it?

I guess, people with loosing models leave long before 1 year. You see the survivors only in the annual list!

There are only 65 losers for 3 Months dude (7909-7844)

Numerai paid out about 6K NMR on the last round. There’s approximately 5M NMR circulating, leaving ~6M locked up. I.e. about 20 years at the current payout rate. So looking at things conservatively, maybe another 10 years supply. (I’m just talking from memory atm, please correct me if I’m wrong).

Think of it like a long slow air drop where potential users have to participate in something, not too difficult, to win prizes, and you have to pay a bit to participate. From a marketing perspective, it’s quite ingenious.

And of course if the hedge fund can use the predictions effectively, all the better.

Here are the details relating to NMR

Thanks @scirpus, though that’s a little out of date. I was just going off the numbers I remembered from a recent look at CoinMarketCap and the info re. payouts on the Round Results page.

FWIW, I find this, especially when combined with the payout rate curve, a fascinating subject from an applied economics POV. Afaics, it’s really well designed. But time will tell.