As an experiment, I’ve been submitting random numbers between 0 and 1 for all the available tickers. The model is called ‘Jersey Devil’ and is currently ranked 71 for corr 20 as of round 278 with one more day to go.
I’m not staking on this model (just the minimum .01 to see returns). I use it solely as a baseline for my other models. If they can’t beat random numbers, they die. Yes it hurts when you put a lot of time and effort into a model and it doesn’t do better than random numbers .
I was pretty surprised this has positive corr at all but we’ll have to see if that continues in the future. Here is a colab notebook with the exact code.
Jersey Devil vs My Current Best Model