Simple math to calcuate economic value of a model


I started selling my models at and calculated what they are worth compared to the example predictions. The example model is pretty solid and has been ranked high, so we definitely have to calculate with that.

I created a simple spreadsheet to calcuate a model value, when we take example prediction as baseline:

You can download and modify this sheet as well to do the calcuation for your models.
Here I copy a screenshot for simplicity as well. I’m always supprised to see, how much we earn with Numerai :smiley:


Should we just stake on example model and get long term return ?

What I tried to show here, how much more you earn, if you stake on a better model like “nyuton_test9”

Considering no matter how hard I try, I can not compete with example, the easy way for me is just invest on example :slight_smile:

@nyuton doesn’t the spreadsheet also need to include the payout factor? Currently i think you would get about half of your calculated gains with the payout factor at ~0.5.

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Thanks for pointing it out, you are right about it!
I updated the spreadsheet!

If investor provide the account name and API access, can you load the prediction for the investor directly ?

Hi Autratec,
sure, you can get the model here:
Send me the API keys and I’ll upload it from next week on.
This week is manual only…

thanks for the response and 1$ offer. i am ok to manually load it at current stage. but it will be good to use API direct push to investor’s account as long term business model.

btw, looking at your diagnostic result, i can see the huge gap need to catch up.

I include validation into the training set. Aim high, but not that high :smiley: