Tournament/Signals Alternative Confidence Metric

Hi Numerai & Numerati!

Have you ever wondered how Numerai data scientists are feeling about the tournament on a day-to-day basis? Well, wonder no more! I’ve gone and collected data on NMR flow in and out of tournament addresses to get a better idea of how they were feeling. Also, I just want to point out that I know NMR stake sizing is a great metric for gauging confidence (that’s a big reason why it exists), but this is a bit different since I only look at how participants move NMR in and out of the tournament. In other words, NMR payouts are excluded, unlike stake sizing!

Now, more specifically on what I did. For every day this year so far, I looked at the deposits and withdraws that occurred and grouped them into days (using UTC to define the cutoffs.) I excluded NMR deposits into tournament addresses from the following addresses since they are used by Numerai themselves to pay stakes and some other stuff:

[“0x1776e1f26f98b1a5df9cd347953a26dd3cb46671”, “0x1248c66bb94607cf6b80d3aec3e62a9fe421e210”, “0xb1544C7f5D81E93A51a84382d08C6c2bd952e859”, “0x0000000000377D181A0ebd08590c6B399b272000”, “0x67b18F10C0Ff8C76e28a383B404E8e6FDEfe2050”]

Here is what I found. Looks like data scientists are mostly confident in the tournament this year:


This does beg new questions. For example, how spread out are these withdraws and deposits? Are they from a few big players or players of all sizes? Did a rapid NMR price adjustment or another event cause a big deposit or withdraw event?

Okay, that’s all for now. I have some more stuff in the works, but if you liked this or have any suggestions, please let me know!

1 Like

Can u also share the analysis of signal ?

Ah, so since tournament addresses are shared between the classic version and signals, I can only get a combined confidence metric. So the above graph is for both the classic tournament and signals; sorry if I didn’t make that clear. Maybe it’s better to call it a Numerai confidence metric then?