Noob and basic question

Numeraire
#1

Hello,

I’m new here and I would like to know if the “Avg 3 Month Return on NMR staked” of (at the time I was writing this) 46,47%, means that, if I stake 100 NMR today, I will have 146,47 NMR after 3 months (if the return stays the same for the 3 months, which will probably not happen). Considering that I am not a programmer and I will not code anything, I’m just investing money into NMR.

If this is the case, how often those gains are added to my account?

I’m sorry for asking such a noob question, but I can’t see a clear answer to this on the website, there just too much information.

Thank you.

#2

Ahh…no that’s not what that means at all if I understand what you are asking. There is no passive income/compounding of NMR just holding it. The price of the token (in fiat terms) could go up like any crypto asset, but it could go down as well. In either case your 100 NMR would stay 100 NMR. The 46% refers to returns from STAKING ON MODELS, which essentially means making predictions and then betting on them. (and you would need to do coding and data science stuff for that).

1 Like
#3

Ok, I understand it now, thanks

But, as a suggestion, why not use the momentum of the best predictions to create a fund where people can invest in?

If the average return for 3 months is 46% it would kick Jim Simons’ ass. And it could basicly have the biggest fee ever seen, while kicking said ass.

#4

There is a difference between what the users get paid for their predictions and the actual hedge fund performance that all of this powers. The hedge fund performance is unknown, and will remain that way for some time (they literally are not legally allowed to talk about it publically). Any numbers you see about returns, etc on the leaderboard is what the users are making for their predictions (in NMR terms). And those numbers are in no way comparable to the real hedge fund (unknown) performance. Yes, you’d hope there would be a correlation there, that’s the whole point, but the hedge fund is trading a small subset of stocks allocated with algorithms we don’t know, has trading costs, etc. i.e. it probably ain’t making +46% but we really don’t know. (But it does mean you might make 46% making models.)

And you can’t you know, just “make a hedge fund” so easily, and little fish like us can’t generally invest in them either (although the world is changing in these areas). People always are dying to invest in the fund for some reason. The truth is unless you have a huge amount of capital you’ll probably make better return making models for the tournament and Signals (check out Numerai Signals as well).

Signals is interesting because since the user brings their own data and knows which stocks they are predicting, it would be theoretically possible anyway for a group of high-performing users to get together and create their own ensemble signal and not “create a fund” but at least an investing club that could pick stocks privately. They’d probably still do better just selling their predictions to Signals though.

1 Like
#5

Ok, but regarding the hedge fund part, yes you could just “make a hedge fund”, if it’s not based on USD, but in NMR.

…I guess.

It would, then, kick Jim’s ass while NMR is stable or rising in price, and would not if it dumps.

IDK, it just felt good to, wrongly, realize that someone invented a hedge fund based on crypto, where people can invest in and get returns on that crypto. Like, people working on Renaissance Technologies get a significant % of the returns of the quant strategies they create, so, why not do it open for everyone and pick the best based on their momentum? It would be almost the exact same thing, but new geniuses would be discovered and rewarded, while mere mortals would get pretty big returns.