Is there any publicly available information on the hedge fund performance?

Is there any publicly available information on the hedge fund performance?

I see people staking 1000s of NMR on their models. Which is fine, they have probably validated it and trust it.

But is there any way to be sure that the company and NMR will be still around tomorrow?
I see higher risk in NMR as on staking!
Am I the only one with this thinking? Am I missing something?


At the moment $6 288 939 worth of NMR at stake
Average 3 month return is 26%. That’s 104% annually!
(not even counting for exponential grows)

Assuming that these numers don’t change pays out $6M+ for developers per year.
Not counting other costs at all!

To keep management fee of the hedge fund below 2%, should have $300M under management.

Is anywhere close to this?
Is 100% (AVEARAGE!!!) return a reasonable expectation?
Isn’t it a Pozni sheme?

Or have I miscalculated something?

No publicly available information on the how the hedge fund is doing, as they cannot say due to regulations.

You are also confusing the $6M+ with “actual” money. They pay us from a “vault” of NMR that they hold. They did not buy this NMR, they minted it. So in effect (not accounting for the development of the smart contract, etc) they are not “spending” that amount of money every year, it’s coming from the vault that they created. What happens when the “vault” runs out is another question that will need to be addressed a few years from now.

Also, the fact that they keep hiring new employees should tell you that they won’t disappear overnight.


@themicon, thank you for explaining that. But could you please be more precise in explaining exactly how regulation affects what they can say to us? I am not trying to challenge your statement, just trying to understand it. For instance, I am invested in other hedge funds and they seem to be able to tell me how they are doing. I mean, obviously I can see how they are doing, but the information appears to be pretty public also.

There are two type of questions that we might be interested in learning. The first is HF ROI. The second is the amount of interest, e.g., the present amount and the in-the-pipeline amount of real dollars to be invested. Is there any distinction between these types of questions with respect to regulations?

Also, there is the issue of hearsay. That is you say they are hiring and I too have heard from other sources that they are hiring, but I don’t really know the extent of that. How do you know about their hiring and why can’t they publicly say that? If they can say they are hiring, why can’t they say what their real-dollar operating budget is?

Given what I know about start-ups and how they operate, namely many start-ups essentially play a game of chicken with fate, then it seems to me that knowledge of hiring provides very little real information on the long term and in some cases even very short term prospects for a startup company. Call it bad luck or whatever, but I have the experience of companies hiring just months away from collapse.

Also, it seems to be that some information may be available to some participants in the tournament, but not to others. Why is that?

Again, I am not challenging this information, just trying to obtain better precision in the rules and limits of what they can or cannot say, and try to understand the discrepancies in the information, i.e., the existence of hearsay seems to suggest there are things that can be discussed.

Let me just say here that I think that some numerati, including founders, managers and other employees and even other tournament participants seem to be bothered by my questions. Please forgive me, I have the best intentions and highest hopes for the company. I apologize. I apologize to all.


@lackofintelligence You should watch and/or participate in the weekly office hours, fireside chats, daily scores streams. We know they have been hiring because the new hires have literally been introduced to us on camera in recent weeks on office hours and we’ve talked to them. (Also in rocketchat. nj has even linked to job listings.) There is no secret information that some users have – you just have to pay attention or get involved.

As far as the hedge fund, there are different regulations depending on how big they are, etc. Some hedge funds are required to declare certain things publicly, others are specifically prohibited from talking about that same stuff in public. The laws are byzantine, but they are real.

Wait-a-second: I listened attentively to the FC on January 7, however inconvenient it was to me. When the questions were asked on slido, why weren’t the items you have listed pointed out? If the hiring is relevant to the question, then why was that not mentioned in response to several earnest questions? Or is the whole hiring question an actual breach of those byzantine regulations, and for that reason it was not mentioned?

Again, hiring specifically is pretty low level information about a startup’s likelihood of lasting through any timeframe.

Regarding Numerai’s ability to discuss possible or contigent investors, I have a very clear memory of Richard Craib discussing the kind of investor that the HF is trying to attract. So there exists precedent for these kinds of discussions! Have the rules changed? What’s going on? Could someone elaborate on an explanation?

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They never discuss the hedge fund on FC chats. (And you can watch that or any of the others videos at your convenience later on.) So any question about that will just be ignored. You are simply asking for them to put themselves in possible jeopardy and they just aren’t going to do it, nor should they The question of hiring doesn’t really have to do with any of this – we are just pointing out an example of something that we can plainly observe ourselves if you are desperately looking for hints about how things are going. If you don’t find the fact that they’ve been hiring, etc to be compelling in any way, then it really isn’t relevant at all (but others may find it so). Your very specific questions cannot be answered by anybody but the team themselves, and they may not even be able to do that as we keep saying. So go ahead and try to ask them privately if you wish and see if they respond. Otherwise, I think it should be assumed that we know everything that they are willing or able to tell us (of course it helps to actually look at the content and receive the information). And then you have to decide if you want to trust that or not. And if it isn’t good enough for you, then just don’t participate. Or accept the risk and continue on.

I just think the level of sophistication of the general forum reader is a little higher than you have inferred and is able to distinguish questions being asked that can be answered without putting the company in jeopardy and are not simply a request for investment advice. Also, I can’t address your response directly because of compound presumptions without so much work that it would dilute the significance of the remarks I have already made and already address those comments.

But thanks for trying.