How long will the NMR jump to the 90$ again?

Numeraire
1

Hi everyone, please kindly share your view on the possibility of the NMR’s price in the future. Thanks you

2

Who knows? But to be honest, I don’t think it will reach 90$ in any short timeframe. However, if crypto enters a bull market again or interest in Numerai goes viral for whatever reason, it might happen, but probably for a very short time.
Keep in mind that on the rather long timescale (many years?) the fate of NMR is not secured, as there is a fixed amount of NMR that can run out, forcing Numerai to either buy back some NMR (which is good for us) or cancels the tournament (which is bad). Or, while it does not seem to be the case for now, if Numerai goes bankrupt or cancels the tournament for whatever reason, NMR price will become essentially 0.

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3

Thanks for your view on this matter, but yesterday NMR has rebounded from around 14.40 to 22.33 in one day, while BTC, BNB and ETH has down a bit.

4

IMO it jumped so much because of the wave. From June 30th the NMR price corrected 63 %, so naturally spring oscillation effect occurs. I don’t think that NMR is gonna place new ATM until S&P500 does. Crypto is very risky market, and we are currently in risk off environment. However, IMO the best time to buy is when nobody wants to buy, so we should enjoy low prices while we can.

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5

Numeraire jumped so much originally because governments were giving a lot of free money with nothing much to do but enjoy the pandemic.

Right now trading looks quite thin, so someone can cause it to spike with a big buy or crater with a big sell. But those die off, so I would expect it to travel pretty much where it is +/- 50%, ceteris paribus.

6

Thanks you for your view on this matter!

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7

Thank you for your view on this matter!

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8

Yeah, when Numerai starts buying NMR in the market, that be a great positive factor for a price hike? In fact, I think the current valuation all depends on it, when eventually Numerai starts using their profit to buy NMRs to pay the data scientists. So I am overall optimistic about the price of NMR.

9

If numerai stop running this prediction game, and considering NMR only has this single usage, there is risk that the value of NMR will back to zero. How we manage this risk, before put more funding in it ?

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10

Depends on what your goal is. If you want to be part of the prediction game and want a little bit more security (especially if you stake considerable amounts of money), there is the possibility to short sell NMR: If NMRs drop to 0 you wont suffer a total loss. Obviously your models then have to be good enough so that the earnings cover the cost of the NMR short positions, so that you have a net win in the end.

If your goal is just to speculate on NMR being more worth in a few years, you’ll have to accept the risk or don’t buy it. I think the risk is somewhat comparable to investing in stocks of a company in its early stages.

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11

How to short NMR and what’s the annual cost?

12

I am still in the experimenting phase where i stake only a few hundred bucks to get a feeling for it so I actually have not tried it so far, so i can’t give you any detailed information. However, as I have long thought about the NMR price risk and searched for solutions, I stumbled across this post.

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