Yeah, 10 USD?, 5 USD? 1 USD?
10! The floor is 10! Wigglemuse has spoken.
I would guess around US$8.00, because NMR seemed to have settled around that area prior to Covid and all the financial craziness that followed from then.
Don’t seek floor. Buy whenever the fear is high, If you trust the project.
You will see the bottom, when BTC has lost 70% of its value from ATH
That would be a lot…
I think the floor correspondents with the floor of the cryptos market. I see two important factors, 1 is the investment demand from ’ the old economy '. In which the availability of USD/EUR/CNY/GBP/JPY etc. will affect the direction. The stockmarket just put a low in place after a 15% decline. Where I think at rapid declines cryptos demand will also be affected and people start pulling funds to avoid risky assets/ meet margin calls. Second factor is the trust overall in cryptos. When trust was diminished because of the Terra Luna USD scammers/ponzi/fiat it was at its lowest. From now on, just like with an BP oil spill. I expect trust to steadily increase. I expect a rapid upward, because the current recovery in Equity markets. Long term slow decline because of central balance sheet halving upcomming 5 years and slow increasing trust and reduced volatility for cryptos. On a long term, 10 year timeframe quantum will cut cryptos prices in half or worse, but that will be after bitcoin reaches 100000 plus and ether 20000
ATH was only at NMR intro in 2017/06 and it was not seen since then. 70% off would be at $30 so that’s surely off.
ATL was at $2.03 in 2018/11 so there still plenty of room on short side…
Anyway, are you really here to make money on NMR?
They burnt half a few years back, the tournament is also completely different now, etc. The fundamental has changed some since ATL.
Current low price of NMR leads us rethink the purpose and position of this tournament.
There some interesting facts we have to recognize:
- Return of example already beats most hedge fund performance. - 3M 23%.
- SIGNAL is hard.
- From 30usd to 11usd, we lose 60%.
- Expect value move from 11 to 30 again and return will be much better than submitting prediction weekly.
I don’t think they burnt it, they locked up 3 million NMR until 2028. (Numerai’s New Token Supply. Numerai just locked up 3 million NMR… | by Richard Craib | Numerai | Medium)
There was once 22 million (I think) and they still had the ability to mint, and then at one point they updated the contract so they could no longer mint and they burned half so it is now capped at 11mil. (Something like that.) This was several years back now.
Though it seems unlikely at the moment, I think it would be prudent to assume that the floor is effectively zero. The company must have run simulations to see what would happen to the fund in the event of no submissions being made, and they are likely at a point where they can keep things going along very nicely and indefinitely without any external participants. If something did start an uncontrolled drop in the value of NMR, there’s no certainty that anything would stop it.
I’ve heard this idea expressed by a few people that Numerai doesn’t really need us anymore and they’d be just fine if overnight we just all stopped submitting. Why would anybody think that?
They don’t have our models. They have no research department (i.e. in terms of predicting stocks) – we are the research department. They have one internal model (the example model) which while it has its moments is factors of magnitude worse than the metamodel they generate from all our models. So I mean if they knew months or years in advance that there would be no participants then they could transition to some other way of doing things, but if we all just decided to stop submitting as of right now, they’d be totally screwed, game over. They’d just have to see if they could gracefully exit their existing positions, but they’d have no firm basis to take new positions. The metamodel is completely new created from scratch every week. Their portfolio isn’t of course, but the metamodel is, so there isn’t a large amount of “inertia” of any kind that will carry them for any length of time. I mean I suppose those promised “benchmark models” are being developed, but still without all of us they have zero advantage over any other fund (other funds have a small army of analysts and modellers, after all). And of course if we all just went away in some big collapse the investors would want out anyway. WE are Numerai, and as things stand they certainly still need us (and with no indication they won’t going forward).
I broadly agree, however they certainly have the skills to create models that outperform the example model, and we don’t know whether any effort has been put into creating models that can replicate user supplied models. It would be surprising from a business perspective if they haven’t considered the “what if” scenario of receiving only a small subset or even no models at all on a particular week (maybe they’d just skip trading if it were just a week or two), and have a reassuring answer for any potential investor who asked about how the fund would be impacted, as well as the scenario of a prolonged lack of predictions. The latter seems unlikely, but it would make sense for the business to at least have considered whether it could sustain itself should that happen. Personally I think Numerai both as a concept and a company is great, I’ve a long term vested interest in the project and I am positive about the future potential, but I’m also realistic about the set of possible outcomes for participants.
So, what is @wigglemuse utterance at $8.15?
$8.07 today, anyone want to bet we are going below $5 in the next 2 months?
I certainly wouldn’t bet against it.
Look at it this way. Any NMR being sold is not being staked. If the payout factor isn’t going up, then all that is happening are speculators selling off NMR. Which helps with decorrelating us from crypto.
Hurts now, good later.